2011 Collection Market Outlook

In 2010, the old and new collectors who shuttled across the major art auction scenes were almost filled with emotions in the art collection market. The prices of many collections soared and rose steadily, constantly rewriting the concept of “high price” of Chinese art. No one can deny that 2010 was a record year for the art auction market, but in what degree did the art market reach its peak in 2011? What are the opportunities and challenges for Chinese painting and calligraphy? Can you keep on rising? What changes will occur to other collections? Who can become a new growth point?

1

Four major problems in the painting and calligraphy market

Modern paintings continue to continue

In 2011, the overall upward trend of modern painting and calligraphy will continue. Zhang Yuejin, deputy general manager of Beijing Hanhai, according to the situation in the autumn of 2010, believes that the status of modern masters in the history of art has been established and has a high degree of recognition in the eyes of collectors and buyers, and their prices have been underestimated by the market in the past. . If compared with Western modern painters, the prices of the two are vastly different, and the works of Western modern masters are frequently tens of millions of US dollars. We are still far from reaching such a level. With the improvement of the national economic level, the price of works of modern masters should have risen to this level of strength.

In 2010, in the modern painting and calligraphy market, Zhang Daqian, Li Keran, and Xu Beihong’s personal turnover were successively over 100 million. Who will be the master of the next billion of works? Of course, Qi Baishi, Fu Baoshi, Huang Binhong, Pan Tianshou, and Lin Fengmian all have the potential to reach the 100 million mark. In addition to these first-line masters, representative painters from all regions are also worthy of attention because there is a group of buyers in each region. , In desperate pursuit of the works of local artists.

Ancient calligraphy painting is still far away

In 2010, “Tai Zhu Ming” and “Cold Food Posting” set a new record for auctions of ancient Chinese paintings and calligraphy, creating a new high for Chinese calligraphy and painting prices, and the overall price of ancient calligraphy and painting also showed a significant upward trend. However, ancient paintings and paintings have always been in the stage of being recognized and understood. Prices have been seriously underestimated. In recent years, they have also been at the stage of value discovery and regression.

Although in 2010 there were more than 100 million yuan worth of prices for ancient paintings and calligraphy, "only the market can be said to be good," and the ancient calligraphy and painting market is still far away. Because, at present, many of the high prices of ancient calligraphy and painting are limited to "Shiqu Baodi". Today's buyers place undue emphasis on "Shiqubaobao". Many buyers are superstitious to "court collection" and "royal artifacts." Many people feel that they have bought it. Such works are reliable and will have a large value-added range in the future. In addition, some of the works whose performance is not high are overdone, rather than priced according to the artistic value of ancient paintings. The ancient painting and calligraphy market is short of funds and lacks competition. What is missing is quality.

Contemporary paintings are steadily rising

Since the rise of contemporary painting and calligraphy from 2004 to 2006, it has been in an adjustment period. Apart from the fact that a few contemporary masterpieces are good for the auction market, the overall price of contemporary painting and calligraphy has not reached the desired height. In 2011, contemporary painting and calligraphy also face enormous opportunities. First of all, the overall promotion of Chinese painting and calligraphy prices is the inevitable driving the development of contemporary calligraphy and painting. In the contemporary calligraphy and painting market, the price of painters who have appeared in the market for a long time and have worked well has risen to a certain height. A selling system has been formed and a very perfect business model has been formed. Their works have become the "hard currency" in the contemporary calligraphy and painting market, such as Huang Yongyu and He Jiaying. The overall price of their works has become more reasonable and some prices are still too high. As the overall price rises, contemporary paintings at low and mid-range prices will also rise. Secondly, in recent years, contemporary paintings have been more widely recognized, have gained more and more high recognition in the international market, and have a very good market foundation; furthermore, contemporary painting has always had a huge private collection force, many of which are traded privately. The volume of such transactions is also very large. The overall promotion of the painting and calligraphy market is the fundamental to the further development of contemporary painting and calligraphy.

Calligraphy market price rises

At present, although there is no lack of surprising "high prices" in Chinese calligraphy, the overall Chinese calligraphy market is in a low state. The works of ancient calligraphy are among the top prices in Chinese calligraphy and painting, and the price of most calligraphy works is a low price. , showing a serious two-level differentiation. Due to the special nature of the art of calligraphy, it is difficult for most people to enjoy it. The number of participants is small, so the market has been relatively small. With the emergence of several “high prices” in the market and the cultivation of the market, in 2010, on the calligraphy market, in addition to the ancient masters, Guo Moruo, Yu Youzheng, and Lin Sanzhi’s transactions were all good. In 2011, the price increase of calligraphy works is an inevitable development of the market. However, ancient and modern calligraphy works are still mainly used. The works of contemporary book writers are mainly concentrated on Qigong and Shen Peng. Among them, the identity and status of the book family play a decisive role, and the most promising ones are the famous calligraphy and letter manuscripts.

2

Stone market fire like "Da Hong Pao"

Tian Huang prices approaching ten thousand yuan per gram

Before and after New Year's Day in 2011, two Shoushan Stone Fairs were held in the Jinan Shandong Building in Quancheng City. There were no shortages of single-piece products worth millions of yuan. Some of the seals on the one hand reached 70,800,000 yuan and one million yuan. Some of the carvings of famous carving masters were as high as 6 million yuan and even 10 million yuan. It is understood that the collections of these masters, which were worth only a few thousand dollars in the 1980s, can now be priced at millions. In the words of "The Emperor of Stone," Tian Huang had already said "One or two fields, three yellows and two golds". Now the price has become "one or two yellow and ten gold." In the spring of 2010, China’s Guardian’s “National Arts” special event also featured Tian Huang as the highlight, accounting for more than half of the total turnover. Among them, Shou Shan Tian Huang Shi’s “Mile” was sold with 117 grams at 1.12 million yuan. Tian Huang's price is close to ten thousand yuan a gram.

Mr. Ji Yu of Fuzhou Xinbang Industrial Co., Ltd. said: “The Shoushan Quarry has already closed mines and no mining is allowed. The last two acres of land in the Yellowstone Production Area have also been sealed with cement. As a result, the sharp rise in Shoushan Stone prices is inevitable. With the development of the times, people’s consumption trends have gradually shifted from the basics of the life of houses and cars to the appreciation and collection of works of art dominated by the spiritual field. The vitality of the art investment market is increasingly being invested. We are optimistic. Therefore, Shoushan Stone, which belongs to both the art field and the non-renewable resources, will have a higher price as it goes further."

Bloodstone rose three times in half a year

Mr. Pan Hanmin is a native of Changhua’s bloodstone production area and is also an expert in running bloodstone. In the summer of 2009, Dahongpao chicken blood chapter (2.5 centimeters square, 10 centimeters high) of his family was quoted at 60,000 yuan at the time, but this piece of material had risen to 180,000 not long ago. He said that the price is still a conservative price and it is still higher in others’ hands. In the first half of 2009, Pan Hanmin's famous master sculptor Qian Chui spent 20 million yuan to buy a batch of bloodstone wool (mostly Dahongpao original stone), ranging in size from tens of grams to several hundred grams, several kilograms, with a total weight of less than One hundred kilograms, and now the valuation has passed 100 million. Mr. Xia Wenrui of Zhejiang Changhua with Shixuan said that since the chicken blood mine has been banned for two years, good bloodstone has been bullish all the way, especially in the second half of 2010, the price has increased three times, some more than ten times. If you continue to seal mines this year, prices will increase.

The price of old jade is 10 times more expensive than new jade

In the 2010 art auction, some of the investment varieties that had fallen behind the Chinese painting and calligraphy, porcelain miscellaneous projects were erupting into strong dynamism. The Jade Jade category is one of them. For instance, Sotheby's party, the Qing Emperor Qianlong Yubao Longkou Niu Baiyu, traded for more than HK$120 million, setting a new record for Yuchao Jade's world auction record and Bai Yu’s world auction record. China's Guardian, Beijing Poly, Beijing Yu Shi and other auction companies have launched the Qing Dynasty palace jade, jade jewelry special events, have achieved a good auction results. In the private market, jade jade is even more vibrant.

Mr. Cui Yizhong, from the Jinan Council of Shandong Collectors’ Association, said: “The real Hetian jade has been difficult to find on the market, and good jade will not be easily sold. The new jade is still so, the old jade is even harder to find. The price of good jade in previous years is generally ten times or even several times that of new jade.The price of jade has been rising steadily, and it is also a work of art. Compared with paintings and calligraphy, investing in jade is relatively less risky. In this trip, it is best to find someone to check, you may wish to start with the new jade. The price of the old jade is still very low, a lot of space, but investors need to have the relevant knowledge and eyesight, otherwise it is easy to be deceived."

3

Wood than gold

The most expensive bed in history

The furniture made of pear wood is natural and no paint is needed. No matter how cold or hot it is, it can be deformed, cracked, crooked or rot for thousands of years. What is even more amazing is that the old age can form a natural patina and the colors will become more and more beautiful. Therefore, Huanghuali furniture also has the reputation of "king of Chinese classical furniture". Now, the meaning of the three words in Huanghua pear has gone far beyond this...

In November 2010, China Guardian launched a special event called "Simple and Timeless - Ming Style Pear Furniture Boutique" for the first time at the 2010 Autumn Auction, which is the largest auction of Ming-style yellow pear furniture in China. . After the debut of the 61 items in the "Pieces of Excellence," they did not disappoint the buyers who looked forward to them. The auction results also did not disappoint the sellers and auction companies. This huanghuali special event not only created a “white glove” (100% auction) but also achieved a total transaction price of up to 259 million yuan***, with an average of more than 4 million yuan each. Among them, a "Pinghuang Pear tufted horseshoe leg six-post canopy bed" was sold at a high price of 43.12 million yuan, setting a new record for the highest price of Huanghuali furniture auction and becoming "the most expensive bed in history." In addition, the "Qianlong Long Pear Longfeng four-piece cabinet pair" also shot 39.96 million yuan, becoming "the most expensive cabinet in history."

Huang Huali will "fry without frying"

2011-2012 may be the most violent year for the Ming and Qing Dynasties' classic furniture, especially the Huanghuali furniture. The Ming and Qing dynasty Huanghua pears are likely to become another collection after the calligraphy and porcelain collection. There are three main factors to promote: First, the previous price has been underestimated; Second, with the popularity of antique collections, more and more collectors have begun to favor the classical furniture culture; Third, if the collectors collect fine calligraphy and porcelain There must also be matching Ming and Qing classical furniture for display and display. This will gradually form a huge scale of collection, prices will continue to rise.

Experts generally predict that Huang Huali may disappear completely in five years. Although the title of “two billion yuan of hot money to sweep south Huangli pears” is often seen in the newspapers, for Huang Huali, “chaos can not be fried” is almost predictable.

Who is the next "Pear"

Currently, the price of Huanghua pear is far beyond what ordinary investors and ordinary people can match. Therefore, many people in the classical furniture industry believe that red rosewood is expected to become the second yellow pear. The current price of red rosewood is only 1/1 of Huang Huali. 5 to 1/4, more upside. Even so, the red rosewood is a species that has already "raised up".

“Now Huanghuali, red sandalwood, and sourwood furniture have been widely recognized as collectors, and prices will remain high. In the next few years, beech and Phoebe wood furniture with the classical furniture culture characteristics of the Ming and Qing Dynasties will also be favored by collectors. It is still worth the attention of collectors and investors. Their current prices are still relatively low, and they may be accepted by the majority of people who love traditional culture in the future,” said Wang Aimin of Nanjing Zhengda Auction Co., Ltd.

4

Avalokites is hype

Why the collection of liquor is hot

At the beginning of the new year, the price of high-end liquor auction market hit new highs. At an auction held in Beijing not long ago, 115 auctions of Chinese famous wines were almost completed, with a total turnover exceeding RMB 2013 million. A bottle of Moutai produced in 1958 sold for 1.12 million yuan, which is more than 260,000 times the original price. According to Zhang Yong, editor-in-chief of the China Wine Circulation Association's journal "Jiuhai Navigation" magazine, there are two main reasons for the high-end liquor collection in recent years: First, these professional real estate speculators have been affected by the national housing price adjustment policy in the past two years. Instead, the funds were invested in other projects with higher returns, resulting in a series of unusually high prices such as mung bean ginger and garlic in 2010. In comparison, the risk of investing in high-end liquor is even smaller. As long as it is properly preserved, the longer the time, the greater the profitability. Therefore, a large number of hot money into the liquor collection began to form a new round of investment boom. Second, do not rule out the hype factor, careful observation will be able to find that whenever entering the liquor sales season, those who collected liquor on the use of the power of ** began to speculation, and usually off-season basically no movement.

High degree of fit for collection

So, what kind of wine has a collection value? Some experts stated that liquors with the following conditions have the value of collection: they have major commemorative significance; they have a long history; they have a unique brand cultural value; they have scarcity and stored-value. As long as it is a pure wine made of high wine, well-designed utensils, have a collection value. Zhang Yong believes that those high-end liquors worthy of being collected are basically tight commodities in the market, and their supply is in short supply. When there is a shortage of demand, the product begins to add value. For example, Maotai, the current annual output is also more than 20,000 tons, in addition to guaranteeing the supply of those licensed channels, far from meeting market demand, in this case, Maotai will appear in the market one year price increases 8 strange phenomenon.

Lack of standards is the biggest problem

In fact, there are not many companies engaged in the collection of high-end liquors of professional and scale type, and more of them are private private collections, which are personal favorites. In a strict sense, they are the real collection behavior. However, the high-end liquor collection hotspots that appear today are actually more like a kind of stocking behavior and a phenomenon of fried wine. Profit-seeking is the nature of capital. In the past two years, the trend of inflation has become increasingly obvious. Before real estate speculation and investment in coal mines, it was easy to become rich, but it will not work for two years. Naturally, some prophetic bosses have invested their money in high-end liquor, which is a high-end liquor that combines consumer goods, gifts and collectibles.

As far as high-end liquor collections are concerned, the biggest problem at the moment is the lack of standards. For example, the 50-year-old wine, how does the mouth feel? How is the texture and color? There is no single criterion in the country. Without standards, there is no way to identify true and false. Since there is no specific accreditation body, most auction companies are more cautious about the aged white wines that are sent to the door, and they are more willing to choose to collect them from reliable Tibetan collectors. Moreover, now that science and technology are so advanced, the level of people's fraud is getting higher and higher. Some counterfeiters even take the form of old bottles of new wine. It is difficult to judge the authenticity by appearance alone. These are places where collectors need to pay attention.